Call for SR&TD Project Grants - 2017
A framework for assess vulnerability of coastal fisheries to climate change in Portuguese coast
Francisco Miguel de Sousa Leitão
Centro de Ciências do Mar
Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries
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Environmental and climate change variability are impacting marine fish and invertebrate species worldwide and these impacts will continue for the foreseeable future affecting fisheries. Quantitative approaches have been developed to examine climate impacts on productivity, abundance, and distribution of various marine fish and invertebrate species. However, it is difficult to apply these approaches to large numbers of species owing to the lack of mechanistic understanding sufficient for quantitative analyses, as well as the lack of scientific infrastructure to support these more detailed studies. We will conduct a climate vulnerability assessment on fish and invertebrate species (e.g. clams and commercial shrimps) along Portuguese Iberian coast including commercial, forage and protected species (e.g. species subjected to quotas). Vulnerability assessments provide a FRAMEWORK for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species with existing information. These methods combine the EXPOSURE of a species to a stressor (for instance decadal variability) and the SENSITIVITY (sensitivity and adaptive capacity) of species to the stressor. These two components are then combined to estimate an overall vulnerability index. This vulnerability FRAMEWORK will allow estimates an index for individual species (biological vulnerability) and consequently the socio-economic vulnerability of fishing sectors to climatic change in different areas of the Portuguese coasts (North, Centre and South- different oceanographic regimes-climate). These will require: i) describe the projected climate-driven changes that are relevant to Portuguese marine key fisheries/species; ii) assess the potential impacts of climate change on key fisheries and species in Portuguese coast; iii) assess current management to identify approaches that are adaptive to potential climate change scenarios. We will define climate vulnerability as the extent to which abundance or productivity of a species in the region could be impacted by climate change, for instance decadal variability. Quantitative data will be used when available, but qualitative information and expert opinion will be used when quantitative data is lacking. We will find if overall climate vulnerability is high to very high for a given species in a region (for instance do diadromous and benthic invertebrate species exhibit the greatest vulnerability?). In addition, we will be able to evaluate if majority of species included in the assessment have a high potential for a change in distribution in response to projected changes in climate. The framework allow that Negative and positive (e.g., increase in productivity or move into the region) expected effects of climate change will inform research and management activities related to understanding and adapting marine fisheries management and conservation to climate change and environmental variability.
climate changefish and shellfish managementfisheries oceanographyprojection models